![]() Photograph: Christopher Hopkins/The Guardian Pick: Talen Horton-Tucker Over 28.The Gunnamatta beach on Victoria’s Mornington Peninsula, where a young man drowned in January. Or, you can be more aggressive with alternate lines or a SGP. The safest play is a points + assists over since he could easily hit that on points alone. Utah is allowing Horton-Tucker to explore the studio space, so if Markkanen is out, you can play Horton-Tucker for 23/6 with potential escalators. He’s cleared 5.5 assists in nine of 13 (74%) and was one away in two others. Horton-Tucker has cleared 22.5 points in four straight. He’s cleared that in nine of 14 appearances since the break (74%) and twice against Utah, but it’s a high line and you risk going under if this turns into a blowout. Gilgeous-Alexander’s points prop sits at 31.5. Props are probably the safest route here. That feels low with incentives so clear, but if we’re afraid to lay the points, that implies a close game and anything can happen at that point. And remember, even these tanking Jazz lineups are playing hard and pushing postseason-bound opponents.Īt -200, the Thunder are an implied 67% to win this game. The Thunder have only covered this spread once in their past 11 games, and that was by just one point against the tanking Blazers. It’s difficult to lay the points with Oklahoma City, even as the better team pushing for a win. He’s had at least 23 points, four rebounds and seven assists in each of the past three games, so you might be able to build a steady SGP with those as a baseline. He has at least seven assists in nine of his past 14 games (64%) and is up to 31.0 PPG over the past four. He’s averaging 20.9 points and 6.6 assists per game over the past month. ![]() Horton-Tucker is running point for this team. Unless Markkanen plays - don’t hold your breath - it’ll be hard to find a Jazz prop to feel good about. The game before that, they lost to Brooklyn by one. They lost that game by just two points and took LeBron James and Anthony Davis to overtime. How many of those men could you even have named? The Jazz also gave significant bench minutes to Damian Jones, Kris Dunn and Simone Fontecchio. Here’s the starting lineup Utah rolled out in its last game: Talen Horton-Tucker, Ochai Agbaji, Luka Samanic, Kelly Olynyk and Udoka Azubuike. Rookie Walker Kessler has been shut down to injury, and Most Improved Player candidate Lauri Markkanen has played only three of the past nine games (injuries and load management). Utah traded away Mike Conley Jr., Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt. The Jazz have lost seven of eight and certainly seem to be tanking for better lottery odds. The offense has found itself, and Utah has shown it has no defensive answer for Gilgeous-Alexander or Williams. The Thunder rank 11th in Net Rating since the start of January, far ahead of the Jazz in 24th. He had a career-high 32 points his last game against the Jazz and is averaging 18.9 PPG since. Rookie Jalen Williams - the perimeter one - continues to be a revelation for the Thunder. He scored 38 and 39 in the two games he played against Utah this year and got to the line 19 times in each game. Oklahoma City is only 3-6 without him, but he should be rested and ready for a must-win game. He missed two weeks after that first Jazz game and has been carefully managed down the stretch. ![]() The Thunder continue to be very careful with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Oklahoma City scored efficiently in two of the three games, and Utah struggled to score in all three. The Thunder won two of those games comfortably and really should’ve won the third, a one-point overtime loss coming out of the break. ![]() Oklahoma City is 2-1 against Utah this season, all since the All-Star break. Some of those are respectable losses to Western Conference contenders, but they also have some terrible losses to the tanking Hornets and Pacers. Oklahoma City has lost six of its past eight. Whether the Thunder want to win or not, they’re not exactly doing so lately.
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